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Prediction for CME (2022-09-04T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-04T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21530/-1
CME Note: Visible in the ESE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not clearly seen in STEREO A COR2. May possibly be associated with eruption and C3.9 flare just east of AR 13093 (near S27E25), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-09-04T07:18Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-06T20:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21536/1
Model Inputs:
2022-09-04T08:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=637.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-09-04T13:41Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-09-06T20:57Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =13.4 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-06T16:56Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-07T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220904_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 55.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-09-04T13:08Z

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